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Thursday, February 21, 2019

**Abstract:** We introduce a new probabilistic model for primes, which we believe is a better predictor for large gaps than the models of Cramer and Granville. We also make strong connections between our model, prime k-tuple counts, large gaps and the "square-root sieve". In particular, our model makes a prediction about large prime gaps that may contradict the models of Cramer and Granville, depending on the tightness of a certain sieve estimate. This is joint work with Bill Banks and Terence Tao.